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Caleb Williams is back and the market is awfully keen to crown the Bears after topping the fickle Falcons by one possession.
In the three video games the dynamic gunslinger was absent due to a hamstring damage, the Bears discovered themselves primarily relying on their protection. That’s not to discredit Case Keenum’s resurrection on “Monday Night Football” against the Eagles in Week 3, but red-zone struggles were a theme across that span: Chicago scored just 4 instances across 15 journeys inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
Mind you, this is a protection that permits an NFL-worst 6 yards per play.
Williams actually gave the market good motive to belief him in his rust-free return against Atlanta. He orchestrated landing drives in the Bears’ first two drives and completed the day with 305 yards, an 83 p.c completion fee, and zero turnovers.
Patriots vs. Bears prediction, greatest wager
A fellow 4-2 Patriots team that is actually in its stride proper now represents a completely different problem for Williams and the Bears on Thursday.
I’ll be the first to admit I hit the eject button on New England after the Jaguars decimated them by 29 factors. Their cakewalk of a schedule that mapped them to the Super Bowl last yr felt like it was starting to get uncovered.
But since then, Drake Maye’s turnover points have fully vanished. After throwing six interceptions through three weeks, the MVP runner-up has tossed an NFL-best 10 touchdowns against just one interception over his last three video games. Maye is also main the league in passer ranking (119.3) and EPA per dropback (0.38) during that stretch.
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams passes against the Atlanta Falcons during the first half of an NFL soccer sport in Atlanta, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. AP Photo/Brynn Anderson
These numbers aren’t inflated by one favorable matchup, either. Maye helped engineer these victories with a 47-point explosion over a respectable Raiders team and is the only challenger to greatest Josh Allen thus far.
It’s price mentioning that New England’s offensive line is battered on the brief week. It lost Morgan Moses and Alijah Vera-Tucker to accidents against the Jets, while Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten are already on injured reserve.
The Bears stress within the prime 5 defenses, so Maye will want to get the soccer out of his palms when he can. Even so, the Patriots allowed zero sacks and just 4 quarterback hits against the Jets despite dropping three offensive linemen in the sport.
Establishing the run sport will be key. New England churned out 148 dashing yards against the Jets, and it’s useful that Chicago ranks among the backside 5 in yards allowed before contact on working performs.
I also expect a bounce-back effort from A.J. Brown. The star wideout managed only three catches on 10 targets in his first full sport with the Patriots. His position won’t be going anywhere.
Perhaps the largest differentiator between these two is New England’s protection, which ranks among the league’s prime 10 in both factors and yards allowed.
Betting on the NFL?
The Patriots do rely closely on man protection — a scheme that Williams ranks within the prime three in both completion share and passer ranking against. Whether defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr mixes in more zone protection stays to be seen, though I expect cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who ranks eleventh total in passer ranking allowed per Pro Football Focus, to restrict one aspect of the area either approach.
This is one of the larger toss-up Thursday evening video games of the season, so aspect with the more succesful protection and a Patriots team that’s 5-1-1 against the unfold as highway underdogs under Mike Vrabel.
THE PLAY: Patriots +2.5 (+125, 45 p.c, Polymarket)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and faculty soccer for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that mirror market worth while monitoring developments to mitigate threat.
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