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The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 13 slate.
SUNDAY
Falcons (-2.5) over JETS
Kirk Cousins isn’t nice, but he’s higher than Michael Penix Jr.
The Jets beat themselves last week against the Ravens, who look like they may want a huge change this offseason. Put plainly, the Jets are good at dropping video games, and the Falcons should be ready to run the ball enough with Bijan Robinson to snag a victory.
49ers -5 over BROWNS
I refuse to purchase excessive on Shedeur Sanders. Sanders had a constructive sport script last week, where the Browns were four-point underdogs to the Raiders.
There’s zero cause that the line should have moved only one level against an 8-4 49er team. Cleveland’s protection is strong and could hold them in this sport, but if they go down early, Sanders is liable to throw a number of interceptions.
TITANS +6.5 over Jaguars
My mannequin has the unfold of this sport 20.88 to 16.74, so there’s a bit of worth on the Titans here. The Titans are the No. 32-rated team in DVOA, so this is actually a hold-your-nose spot, but given the Jaguars’ No. 24-ranked offense in yards per play, it’s laborious for me to have too much confidence in the Jaguars to cowl a landing here.
The Texans protection is ferocious and will give the Bills matches on Sunday. Getty Images
Texans +4.5 over COLTS
There’s tons of uncertainty at quarterback here. Daniel Jones has a damaged fibula, but is apparently wholesome enough to proceed taking part in. CJ Stroud may or may not play, but I’ll belief Houston’s protection to sluggish down Jonathan Taylor here. The Texans are No. 7 in the NFL against the run in DVOA. I think the Texans could win regardless of who is under heart.
Saints +6 over DOLPHINS
So the Saints go from two-point favorites over the Falcons to six-point underdogs to the equally unhealthy Dolphins? If you’re taking the Dolphins -6, you’re just not paying consideration.
The Saints are ranked No. 19 in the NFL in defensive DVOA, forward of the Dolphins. Neither team is good, but the Saints shouldn’t be this large an underdog, even with out Alvin Kamara. My mannequin has the Saints favored 21.9 to 20.57.
Cardinals +3 over BUCS
Baker Mayfield sounds probably to play, and he’s a gamer, so I expect him to be out there. But why are they still favored in this sport by a subject aim? Arizona has the No. 10-rated protection per DVOA, and its offense, while massively poor, actually wants to keep away from turnovers to hold this one shut.
I’d guess that we get a subject aim sport either method here, and I’ll take the Cardinals.
Rams -10 over PANTHERS
There are video games to back Bryce Young and video games to keep away from him, this is the latter. Los Angeles is an all-star team on the defensive aspect of the ball. The Rams are permitting just 3.9 yards per carry this season (No. 5 total) and their 4.6 yards per play allowed is ranked No. 6 in the league.
The Panthers normally cowl video games that they can rating in.
This isn’t one of them.
Rams by two touchdowns.
If Bryce Young was lost against the 49ers, issues will only get worse agaist the Rams. AP
SEAHAWKS -10.5 Vikings
Max Brosmer begins at quarterback for the Vikings, and he may be an improve over J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings are presently rated No. 18 on protection and 29 on offense in DVOA, while the Seahawks are No. 2 in DVOA.
They love blowing groups out at home and this is a spot for their protection to snicker their method to a dominant win.
STEELERS +4 over Bills
How much more can Josh Allen actually do for this team? Buffalo is lacking both tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, a catastrophe spot for a Steelers protection that is truly enhancing as the season has progressed.
TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith are going to be respiratory down Allen’s neck all evening lengthy in Pittsburgh.
CHARGERS -9.5 over Raiders
The Raiders are firing everyone in an try to proper the ship in Las Vegas. Not precisely what you’re wanting for when putting a wager on a team, so I won’t chew here. My mannequin has the Chargers as 11-point favorites so since we get to clear a key quantity of 10, I’m superb with the Chargers here.
Betting on the NFL?
Broncos -6.5 over COMMANDERS
My mannequin has the Broncos favored by 9 factors here. So the protection is the story here. They are rated No. 4 in defensive DVOA and No. 7 total, while the Commanders have been in the tank behind Marcus Mariota. There’s no method I’m trusting their backup quarterback to hold this one shut.
Giants +7.5 over PATRIOTS
I’ll fortunately take Jaxson Dart here against an overrated Patriots squad. New England was fortunate to beat the Falcons by one level a few weeks in the past when a missed further level ruined their quest for a victory.
New England was also the beneficiary of an choose six to beat a depleted Bengals squad. My mannequin has the unfold dead-on, but I’ll take the Giants here, and I think they win outright.
Last week: 7-3-2
Season: 80-80-3
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the soccer season he’s showcased huge income at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While consistently betting lengthy pictures, his return on funding is 30.15 % since 2022.
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